Kathleen Wynne's electoral victory in Ontario last week has given more life to a common piece of historical myth about Ontario politics. When Ontario votes Liberal provincially, they vote Conservative federally, or vice versa. According to its logic, the Conservatives will win the next federal election with Ontario's help in 2015. There's never any worthwhile explanation offered for this phenomenon, other than it “happens every time” and “Ontario voters are fickle.” A coincidence has become a pattern, but how do we distinguish the two historically?